Published inputs: Statistics Canada’s 2023 Survey of Financial Security medians (released October 29, 2024), its 2023 wage medians (released April 1, 2025), and PBO’s Q4 2024 wealth thresholds in Table 4 of its September 11, 2025 report. The $519,700 national net-worth median is in 2023 dollars. PBO’s $1.3M, $2.1M and $7.5M top-20%, top-10% and top-1% thresholds describe Q4 2024. These different dates are not inflation-normalized here.
AF assumptions: −$100,000 at the 5th percentile and $0 at the 15th are illustrative low-end anchors, not published survey points. Income percentile factors (0.35, 0.59, 0.78, 1, 1.42, 2 and 3.4 times the median), composition shares, debt paths and distribution shapes are chosen examples. Interpolating medians or scaling a national curve by a provincial median does not establish a real local distribution. Wealth refers to family units; wages refer to individual tax filers.
- Model bands are rounded to five percentile points; this is display rounding, not statistical precision or an uncertainty interval.
- Sources and model labels checked October 20, 2026. No 2026 survey rank is claimed.
- Negative net worth is supported.
- Territories are excluded because the cited SFS provincial table covers the 10 provinces.
- The future scenario uses today's dollars and does not model tax, fees, or volatility.